Nepali Maoist gameplan,

Ganga BC
in Kantipur, 23 August


The NC and UML are the main opponents of the Maoists. The latter concluded during their recent central committee meeting that the growing polarisation in Parliament was good for them. Their opponents aren't as cooperative now as they were back when they thrashed out the 12-point agreement.

Although the Maoists are maintaining decorum for the sake of the ongoing peace process and the formation of the constitution, they are insisting on a new agreement that will allow them to write the new constitution. They are deliberately clashing with other political parties because they feel it will allow them to set the national agenda of the government and give them a basis for the 'people's movement'.

'Civil supremacy' is now the key issue on the Maoist agenda. They hope to be successful with a new agenda that includes the setting up of a people's democratic republic and a pro-people constitution.

The Maoists are more likely to get their way by protesting about 'civilian supremacy' than by raising the issue in Parliament. If Parliament addresses their demands in any way, then their agitation will be limited to just slogans. They have observed that increasing conflict with the government will automatically create the conditions for a people's uprising. After the central committee meeting, Pushpa Kamal Dahal highlighted 'the right to revolt'. He said revolution is inevitable if there is no civilian supremacy, which means civil unrest is essential.

The internal conflict of the Maoists following their withdrawal from government has been resolved for good. Mohan Baidhya is happy with Dahal's roadmap, which envisages establishing a people's republic through a people's uprising. Now the Maoists are calling for a national government under their leadership. This is a temporary strategic plan. If they succeed, they will shift to demanding a republican constitution, a move which is likely to be controversial. This really means a people's constitution.

The former rebels aim to establish a people's republic through a people's revolt. They don't think there is any other way to establish a people's republic. They will not implement their strategy as yet because any other agenda besides peace, constitution-writing and a democratic republic could be counterproductive nationally and internationally for them. They have studied the possibility of an alliance between the NC and UML and their own subsequent isolation. This is why they are keen to encourage conflict between the NC and UML.